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African stock market | On Thursday (December 12th), the FTSE /JSE Africa Top 40 tradable index closed down 0.18% to 78,341.48 points. The South African rand is currently down 0.58% against the US dollar, reaching a fresh low of 17.8027 rand.CITIC Securities: It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. CITIC Securities Research Report believes that the Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing. On the whole, the policy level is fully aware of the grim situation that external pressure may increase significantly within next year, and has put forward a series of requirements such as stable growth, stable prices, stable employment and stable people's livelihood. From the perspective of fiscal policy, the amount of financial instruments supporting the real economy will be comprehensively increased, the government's disposable financial resources will be significantly improved, and the fiscal expenditure structure will be tilted to the marginal consumption of people's livelihood. From the perspective of monetary policy, the meeting called for the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, timely lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates. We expect the reverse repo rate to drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more.Freddie Mac: mortgage interest rates dropped for three weeks to 6.60%.

The allocation percentage of the winning interest rate in the four-week national debt auction in the United States from December 12 was 57.75%, and the previous value was 77.28%. The four-week national debt auction in the United States until December 12-the winning interest rate is 4.24%, and the previous value is 4.4%. 4-week national debt auction in the United States from December 12-bid multiple is 3.14, and the previous value is 2.74.Chang Yang, chief analyst of the policy team of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute: The Central Economic Work Conference further released the signal of supporting the development of the private economy. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to give play to the traction role of economic system reform and promote the implementation of landmark reform measures. High-quality completion of the deepening and upgrading of state-owned enterprise reform, the introduction of private economy promotion law. Carry out special actions to standardize law enforcement involving enterprises. Formulate guidelines for the construction of a unified national market. Strengthen supervision and promote the healthy development of platform economy. Make overall plans to promote the reform of the fiscal and taxation system and increase local independent financial resources. Deepen the comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market, open up the blocking points of medium and long-term funds entering the market, and enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system. Chang Yang, chief analyst of the policy team of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, told reporters that the meeting put forward a very targeted statement on the private economy. Among them, expressions such as "Promulgating the Private Economy Promotion Law" and "Launching Special Actions to Standardize Law Enforcement of Enterprises" have further released the signal of supporting the development of the private economy, which is expected to create a more favorable policy environment for the development of the private economy. (SSE)Shell Ocean Company: It is estimated that in 2026, two wells of PERDIDO SPAR operated by Shell in the Gulf of Mexico will be put into production for the first time.

ECB sources: Some people think that the ECB overestimates economic growth. In the case of Trump's tariff increase, the economic growth next year may be less than 1%.The U.S. Treasury auctioned eight-term treasury bonds, and the winning bid rate was 4.500% (4.350% on December 5), and the bid multiple was 2.81 (3.50 in the previous auction).CITIC Securities: It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. CITIC Securities Research Report believes that the Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing. On the whole, the policy level is fully aware of the grim situation that external pressure may increase significantly within next year, and has put forward a series of requirements such as stable growth, stable prices, stable employment and stable people's livelihood. From the perspective of fiscal policy, the amount of financial instruments supporting the real economy will be comprehensively increased, the government's disposable financial resources will be significantly improved, and the fiscal expenditure structure will be tilted to the marginal consumption of people's livelihood. From the perspective of monetary policy, the meeting called for the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, timely lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates. We expect the reverse repo rate to drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more.